USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee consolidates weekly gains above 74.00 on USD rebound

USD/INR snaps two-day south-run, bounces off monthly low.
Covid woes put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar.
Indian infections rise by 44,230, virus-led deaths jumped by 555.
US PCE Inflation, second-tier Indian data and risk catalysts should be watched for fresh impulse.
USD/INR picks up bids around 74.30, 0.08% intraday, before Friday’s European session. Although the newest bounce off the monthly low favors the Indian rupee (INR) pair to print daily gains for the primary time in three weeks, it remains on the two-week south-run by the press time.

While tracing the pair’s immediate rebound, the US dollar recovered from a one-month low, amid the coronavirus woes, which might be cited because the key catalyst. Also helping the counter-trend traders might be the market’s cautious sentiment before the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, namely US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure price level for June.

Although India is luckily faraway from Japan and therefore the US, the Asian nation’s latest covid numbers do provides a warning call to the policymakers. As per the newest Health Ministry data, conveyed by Reuters, India reports 44,230 new covid-19 cases within the last 24 hours, taking a complete to 31.57 million. Further, the price increased by 555 to 423,217 at the newest . Elsewhere, Japan posts record daily covid count and therefore the US infections also are the very best since February.

On the opposite hand, US Q2 GDP backed the Fed’s resistance to debate tapering but today’s inflation data may renew reflation fears as market consensus favors a 3.7% YoY figures versus 3.4% previous readouts. Furthermore, the United States Senate talks over President Joe Biden’s infrastructures spending plan also are positive and suggests an extra inflow of cash , which successively could bring additional inflation and urgency for the Fed to act.

The market plays back US Dollar Index (DXY) to snaps a four-day downtrend, up 0.05% around 91.96 by the press time. However, the US Treasury yields and stock futures, to not forget Asian stocks, are offered at the time of the press.

Given the risk-off mood favoring the USD/INR bulls, any longer strengthening of the US data may extend the recovery moves. However, Indian infrastructure relating data and headlines affecting market sentiment, mainly concerning the covid and US stimulus, also will be important to observe for near-term direction.

Read: US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure price level June Preview: Bad won’t be bad enough

Technical analysis
Unless breaking the late June’s swing lows, surrounding 74.00, USD/INR may again attempt to cross the 21-DMA level surrounding 74.55.

Today last price 74.3275
Today Daily Change 0.0777
Today Daily Change % 0.10%
Today daily open 74.2498

Daily SMA20 74.5451
Daily SMA50 73.8802
Daily SMA100 73.7855
Daily SMA200 73.6182

Previous Daily High 74.4531
Previous Daily Low 74.2104
Previous Weekly High 75.0155
Previous Weekly Low 74.3213
Previous Monthly High 74.5135
Previous Monthly Low 72.4854
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 74.3031
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 74.3604
Daily Pivot Point S1 74.1557
Daily Pivot Point S2 74.0616
Daily Pivot Point S3 73.913
Daily Pivot Point R1 74.3985
Daily Pivot Point R2 74.5472
Daily Pivot Point R3 74.6413


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